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Nottingham Forest Conclusions

19/09/21

Off the back of a 3-0 victory on the North West coast, Town returned home to face a Nottingham Forest side who sat stone last of the EFL Championship. An unchanged lineup from the win at Blackpool for Town, while newly appointed interim reds manager Steven Reid made wholesale changes to the side that lost at home to Middlesbrough.
Neither side started the game with particular venom, but it was Forest that took the lead 22 minutes in after a frightening break of pace from Welsh international Brennan Johnson. The winger whipped a ball into the box from the wide region before Lewis Grabban headed in from just outside the 6-yard box.
Town started to become more attacking after going behind and were starting to gain some momentum before the break but no chances of real quality occurred.
At the interval Town switched from a back 3 to a back 4 with the introduction of Ollie Turton for Matty Pearson. The introduction of Turton made the difference, for Forest as a misplaced pass allowed a Forest player to take a shot from distance with Joe Lolley following in the rebound to put Forest two goals to the good.
It was a frustrating rest of the game from a Town perspective as Town failed to break down the Forest backline, as Town suffered their first home defeat to the East Midlands side in 7 years.

Blaming the striker for the defeat is wrong.

A quick look on social media after the game would show that the fans were very unhappy about one player in particular, Danny Ward. It is fair to say that there is some substance behind the fans frustration. Ward has started 7 out of the 8 games that Town have played this season and only has one goal to show his troubles.
To come to Wards defence here, it is not like Town create a lot of chances in open play or has he missed a glut of easy chances. He has scored 1 goal this season, with an xG 1.06, so I think it is clear that he has not had a plethora of chances. It should be mentioned though that as the striker, you need to be making the runs in behind that he isn't at times, so part of the blame needs to be with him.
It is seemingly a common theme that Town fans are unhappy with the striker options, Campbell doesn't score enough, Rhodes is passed it and Ward shouldn't be starting. Mipo has come off the bench three times and hasn't had a proper chance yet. This is where I disagree that it is the striker who is solely to blame, Town don't create enough in open play and when Town are going to dominate a game, Hogg and O'Brien are a waste because they aren't good enough in the final third. I was surprised to see Scott High not even make the bench, he would have been a perfect change for either Hogg or O'Brien as he is that bit more attacking minded.

Town still stuggle to break teams down when they have all the ball.

Town are not good enough on the ball yet and don't have the ability to play high intensity, high pressure football against a side that is happy to sit back. Town had 70% possession - the highest amount of the season by nearly 20% and failed to turn any of that possession into chances. Forest did exactly what Town have done against sides this season and sat back, frustrate the opponent and counterattack them. As bad as Town were, I think it is only fair that Forest interim manager Steven Reid is given credit for making Town look bad and the way he set Forest up.

Corberan got his team selection and tactics wrong.

Considering that Carlos choose to announce in his pre-match press conference that three players were with the medical team after Blackpool, but named an unchanged lineup suggests the players were tired. I think with 8 Town having played three games in a week, probably in hindsight Town should have made a few changes against Forest to freshen the team up.
Against bottom of the league who hadn't won a game before Saturday, there is no reason to start with two defensive-minded midfielders in the midfield three. Even at half time, it was clear that Town was struggling to break down the back 5 that Forest was playing. I think Carlos needed to sacrifice one of Hogg or O'Brien at half time for an attacking change. Bringing Holmes on did make sense, but in place of Koroma was a strange choice given Town were trailing, unless he was carrying an injury.

A season of mediocrity is a good season

If Town keep up their early form of taking just under 1.5 points a game, Town will still get over 70 points, which would be great for the club. It would give players such as Brahima Diarra, Jon Russell and Ben Jackson a chance in the first team when we become safe and get them up to speed. A push for play offs at this stage could unsettle a few players and not give opportunities for youth players at Town. Town will lose more football games as that is what happens with football, they might not have played well against Forest, but they weren't outstanding and got a result at Blackpool, it is just the way it sometimes goes. It was just a disappointing result more than anything.

Town don't know what to do when they go behind in a game.

Town lost nearly 30 points from winning positions last season which is bad, but wouldn't be as bad if they were able to recoup them from losing positions. Town have won only a couple or so times after going behind since they have been relegated from the Premier League and is something that they need to work on. At 1-0 down there looked like there was some fighting spirit and again at 2-0. Last week at Stoke, Town looked the better side and shouldn't have ended up walking home empty-handed, but Stoke managed to turn it around, so how come Town never seem to be able to? I think it must be a psychological thing with the Town squad, because unless they score first in a game, they never look like they are going to win and the opposition squads know this and just sit off them.