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Fulham, Away - 5 Conclusions

19/02/2022

Honestly, this piece could probably only be a line long and should say something like: 'Town were very good'. That however, is quite obvious after beating the league leaders 2-1 in their own backyard.

Ollie Turton is suiting being used in a back four.

Turton started in the 5-1 drubbing back in August as a right wing back in a 352. It certainly wasn't the best home debut he could have wanted, but he has looked a different player in a back four. Today he was excellent, he played a superb ball down the wing to Thomas in the build up to the opening goal and he put a huge defensive shift to go with it.
I've also been impressed when he has been used on the right of back three and I think he is a huge asset to Town if they are unsure whether to start a back three of four as he is versatile in both. I feel that he suffered the most in Corberan's choice to use a back five early in the season especially being deployed in the wing-back role, but he is now looking like a really solid option for Town.

Is it too early to talk about promotion?

Town are 15 unbeaten in all competitions and since the start of December, they have won 25 points from 13 league games, which is the most in the division, albeit some teams have played fewer games. Town are averaging just over 1.9 points per game, if you project this with 15 games remaining, Town are on for 81/82 points. No team since the turn of the century have ever failed to qualify with that number of points, while the points required to qualify for the play-offs ranged between 70 and 80 in that time. The division has been competitive in terms of how close teams are at the table to each other, while the number of teams around the 50 point mark at this stage in the season is somewhat unprecedented. So potentially a situation arises where more than 80 points are required, but we will have to wait and see.
Town is in a great position though, 5th round of the FA Cup, 5th in the table, 15 unbeaten. There is no reason it can't be done.

If Lewis O'Brien could just improve his final ball, he would be the best midfielder in the league.

It is hard to argue against Lewis O'Brien being dubbed as Huddersfield's best player, he is the best progressive midfielder in the Championship and it's no wonder that a catalogue of Premier League clubs are chasing his signature. One shortcoming however is his final ball. He has 2 assist this season, 3 last season and 4 the season prior to that. Yet he had the most key passes last season and the second-most this season.
Town created little from open play today, but that didn't really matter given they still won. There were a few times that you felt that Town did waste their counter-attack opportunities, no bigger one than when O'Brien failed to find Ward in a 2 on 1 scenario. It was a slightly difficult pass to make, but if you have aspirations of playing in the Premier League, you need to be able to find the striker.
The underlying data backs this up. This season Lewis has made 35 key passes, which generated an expected assist (xA) of 2.73, while from 45 key passes last season, he generated an xA of 4.35, then 35 key passes in his debut season which generated 3.35 xA. He is the second most fouled player in the division (71). Out of the top 10 players for completed dribbles in the division, only Joe Rothwell has a better dribbler success rate yet Lewis has completed 15 more dribbles. Rothwell is a brilliant player to compare Lewis with, both the engine of their respective sides midfield. Rothwell has 7 assists from 48 key passes, from 5.78 xA. Rothwell's average key pass is worth 0.12xA, while O'Briens' is only 0.8xA. Rothwell is creating chances that are deemed to be 50% more likely to result in a goal than Lewis.
I know you are going to be thinking, 'Town have beaten the best team in the league and you are still complaining?'. You are not wrong, but if we are being picky, this is probably one of the only flaws in his game.

Josh Ruffels being given the nod against Sheffield United was the wake up call Toffolo needed.

The Sheffield United team selection was certainly a statement by Carlos to say that nobody in that squad is undroppable. Toffolo was forced to watch from the bench as Ruffels put in a very tidy display in his first Championship start. Toffolo was brought back for the game at Craven Cottage and put in a scintillating display. An excellent tackle that won possession back for the first goal really summed up his performance and to say he was defending against Mitrovic and Wilson down his flank and kept them quiet for 90 minutes is no mean feat.
Corberan now knows what Toffolo can do and if he doesn't back this up against Cardiff midweek, Ruffels is raring to come in off the sidelines.

Danny Ward is playing the best football of his career.

It is the best goalscoring season of his career, with the opening goal today being his 11th of the season - eclipsing the 10 goal season hauls for Town in 2013/14 and Rotherham in 2016/17. In both those seasons, he was taking on average one shot more per game.
Ward was thought of as being overweight and lazy during his first spell at the club, but that is a polar opposite now. He is giving his all every single game, chasing down every ball and often doing so with little backup. It is clear that last year hurt him, and by his own admission, it was a shocking season. Now he is looking full of confidence and is one of the most clinical strikers in the league. Left foot, right foot, header, inside the box, outside the box or a poacher's finish, Ward has showcased an array of goals and is probably the unsung hero of this Town team.
It is hard not to be happy for him, he is a class act on and off the pitch, the work he is doing with the Jordan Sinnott Foundation is brilliant. He looks a different player this season and for the better!